Colorado Real Estate Market Update

Posted in Colorado Real Estate Market Update by Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist, Windermere Real Estate 

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 44,800 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months. This represents a reasonable growth rate of 1.7%. As stated in last quarter’s Gardner Report, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that’s to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. I predict that employment growth in Colorado will pick back up as we move through the year, adding a total of 70,000 new jobs in 2019, which represents a growth rate of 2.6%.

In February, the state unemployment rate was 3.7%, up from 2.9% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by more than 84,000 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report haven’t moved much in the past year, but Boulder saw a modest drop (2.7%), and the balance of the state either remained at the same level as a year ago or rose very modestly.

 

HOME SALES

  • In the first quarter of 2019, 11,164 homes sold — a drop of 3% compared to the first quarter of 2018 and down 13.5% from the fourth quarter of last year. Pending sales in the quarter were a mixed bag. Five counties saw an increase, but five showed signs of slowing.
  • The only market that had sales growth was Adams, which rose 4.9%. The rest of the counties contained in this report saw sales decline, with a significant drop in the small Park County area.
  • I believe the drop in the number of home sales is partially due to the significant increase in listings (+45.6%), which has given would-be home buyers more choice and less need to act quickly.
  • As mentioned above, inventory growth in the quarter was significant, but I continue to believe that the market will see sales rise. I expect the second half of the year to perform better than the first.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth is tapering. The average home price in the region rose just 2.1% year-over-year to $456,243. Home prices were .3% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • I anticipate that the drop in interest rates early in the year will likely get more buyers off the fence and this will allow prices to rise.
  • Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 21.9%. We still attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Clear Creek County experienced a drop in average home price. Similar to Park County, this is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • Affordability remains an issue in many Colorado markets but that may be offset by the drop in interest rates.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose five days compared to the first quarter of 2018.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in two counties — Gilpin and Park — compared to the first quarter of 2018. The rest of the counties in this report saw days-on-market rise modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 26 days.
  • In the first quarter of 2019, it took an average of 42 days to sell a home in the region, an increase of four days compared to the final quarter of 2018.
  • Job growth drives housing demand, but buyers are faced with more choice and are far less frantic than they were over the past few years. That said, I anticipate the late spring will bring more activity and sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the first quarter of 2019, I have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I am watching listing activity closely to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth; however, the trend for 2019 will continue towards a more balanced market.

 

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on May 22, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Housing Trends, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling, Timnath Real Estate, Wellington Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Inventory vs. Sales

A stat we find interesting is the relationship between the inventory for sale versus what is actually selling.

Specifically what we look at are price ranges.

We are curious to know if the inventory that is for sale lines up with what the buyers want.

Here’s what we notice…

In Larimer County, 23% of all the single family homes for sale are priced under $400,000. No surprise, this is a popular price range among buyers and it represents 45% of all sales.

So, the ratio is 23% of the inventory versus 45% of the sales.

In Weld County, the difference is more pronounced.

Homes under $400,000 represent 44% of the inventory and 69% of the sales.

Because the percentage of sales is higher than the percentage of inventory, properties under $400,000 will sell much quicker and are more likely to have multiple offers.

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To see the latest on the market, be sure to check out a copy of the new Gardner Report, our Chief Economist’s quarterly look at Front Range real estate.

Posted on May 21, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Homes for Sale, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling, Timnath Real Estate, Wellington Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Colorado economy continues to grow, adding 69,100 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, which represents a solid growth rate of 2.6%. That said, we are continuing to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that is to be expected at this stage of the business cycle. My latest forecast suggests that Colorado will add a total of 65,000 new jobs in 2019, representing a growth rate of 2.3%.
In November, the state unemployment rate was 3.3%, up from 3% a year ago. The increase is essentially due to an increase in the labor force, which rose by 77,279 people. On an un-seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report dropped between November 2017 and November 2018. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, but that was still a very respectable 4%. Fort Collins and Boulder had the lowest unemployment rate of 2.9%. All the regions contained in this report are essentially at full employment.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the fourth quarter of 2018, 12,911 homes sold — a drop of 13.8% compared to the last quarter of 2017 and down 22% from the third quarter.​
  • The only market that saw growth in sales was Clear Creek, which rose by 3.8%. This is a small market, however, and is prone to rapid swings in price as well as sales. There was a significant drop in sales in the Denver market. I will be watching closely to see if this is an anomaly or a longer-term trend. At this time, I believe the former to be true.​
  • Interestingly, this decline in sales in Denver came as inventory levels rose by 37%. For now, I attribute this to seasonality and expect to see sales growth return in the spring.
  • Inventory growth continues to give buyers more choice, allowing them to be far more selective — and patient — before making an offer on a home. That said, well-positioned and well-priced homes are selling relatively quickly.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • Despite the rapid rise in listings and slowing home sales, prices continue to trend higher, though the rate of growth is slowing. The average home price in the region rose 6% year-over-year to $454,903. Home prices were 2% higher than in the third quarter.
  • In all, the data was not very surprising. As with many markets across the country, affordability is starting to become an issue. However, the recent drop in interest rates likely stimulated buyers at the end of 2018 and I expect to see good price growth in the first quarter of 2019.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Park County, where prices rose 28.2%. We can attribute this rapid increase to it being a small market. Only Gilpin County saw a drop in average home price. Though this, too, is due to it being a very small market, making it more prone to significant swings.
  • As mentioned, affordability is becoming an issue in many Colorado markets and I anticipate that we will see some cooling in home price appreciation as we move through late 2019.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home in Colorado rose by one day compared to the final quarter of 2017.
  • The amount of time it took to sell a home dropped in four counties: Boulder, Larimer, Gilpin, and Park. The rest of the counties in this report saw days on market rise relatively modestly with the exception of the small Clear Creek market, which rose by 20 days.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2018, it took an average of 38 days to sell a home in the region, but it took less than a month to sell a home in five of the eleven counties contained in this report.
  • Housing demand is still there, but buyers appear to have taken a little breather. I anticipate, however, that the spring will bring more activity and rising sales.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

The speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2018, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I will be closely watching listing activity in the spring to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth — something that would-be buyers appear to be waiting for.

 

As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.

Posted on May 8, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Housing Trends, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Timnath Real Estate, Wellington Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Immaculate Duplex in Cherry Hills!

Enjoy the view of Lake Loveland from this immaculate duplex at 2411 Taft Ave B in the Cherry Hills neighborhood! Fully updated with custom finishes, this home features a large kitchen with heated tile, custom shelving and breakfast bar. Spacious living room with granite fireplace and dining room with wood floors. Large bedrooms and fantastic master suite with a private deck, walk-in closet and bath featuring artisan tile. Double wall between neighboring unit and a private fenced backyard! Call for your private showing at (970) 237-2752 for more information or click the link below for more details.

http://holstenrealestate.com/listing/92610716

Posted on March 18, 2019 at 4:24 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Loveland Real Estate, Virtual Tours | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Condo Cyclone

 

While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools over the last two days, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.

 

What’s the “Condo Cyclone” you ask. It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.

Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…

 

• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County

 

This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.

 

What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.

 

Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:

• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County

 

So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!

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Just Released (a new resource site just for you…)
• Want to see the latest market trends? 
• Curious to see the process of buying or selling a home? 
• Interested in what it takes to own investment property? 
• Be sure to visit www.ColoradoLivingBlog.com

Posted on March 15, 2019 at 7:23 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Fort Collins Real Estate, Greeley Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Housing Trends, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Timnath Real Estate, Wellington Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

5 Deal Breakers That Can Blindside Home Buyers

Purchasing a home can be a complex endeavor for even the most well prepared home buyer.  You’ve diligently saved for your down payment, followed the market, researched agents and now you are ready to make an offer on your dream home.  Don’t let these 5 “Deal Breakers” come between you and your new home.

    1. Big Purchases on Credit. It is tempting to buy the furniture for your new home or a new car for the garage before the sale closes. Take care if you are making these purchases on credit. Large purchases on credit can have a major impact on your credit profile which effects your mortgage application. It’s a better plan to wait until after closing or pay cash for these transactions or you may be putting that furniture in a different living room than you originally picked them out for.
    2. Overpaying. Before your bank will approve your mortgage they will appraise the home you are purchasing.  If they feel you are overpaying they are likely to decline your mortgage application. If you find yourself in this situation consult with your agent on renegotiating your offer to be more in line with the bank’s appraised value.
    3. Purchasing too close to Foreclosure. If you are making an offer on a house which is facing foreclosure be sure to have a closing date set before the foreclosure date. Have your agent work with the lender to structure closing before the house goes back to the bank and into foreclosure.
    4. IRS liens. You’ve heard the old saying “Death and Taxes”.  Back taxes and liens can derail your attempts to get financing for a mortgage so be sure to have your books in order before filing your loan application.
    5. Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange (CLUE). CLUE is a data base of insurance claims for both people and property.  Your home insurance rates are determined by the information about you and the property you plan to purchase which is contained in this report. Past claims for water damage, falling trees and even dog bites from present and past owners can multiply your insurance rates. Consult your agent about the CLUE report for your future home as soon as possible once your home purchase offer is accepted.

When purchasing a home there will be challenges which you can plan for and the unexpected hurdles.  By educating yourself as a consumer and choosing a well trained real estate agent you can avoid many of the pitfalls of 21st century home ownership.

What about you? Tell us if you have had any “deal breaker” experiences.

Posted on February 21, 2019 at 4:34 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Timnath Real Estate, Wellington Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Fabulous Condo in Lakeshore at Centerra!

Your new home or outstanding investment property at 4685 Hahns Peak Dr #204 features vaulted ceilings, open floor plan and a spacious kitchen. Sprawling master suite, and a covered balcony. HOA includes club house, pool, trash, exterior maintenance and more. Close to shopping and dining. Super clean and ready to go! Quick closing possible! Call for your private showing at 970-237-2752 for more information or click the link below for more details.

http://holstenrealestate.com/listing/82012399

Posted on July 23, 2018 at 5:16 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Loveland Real Estate, Virtual Tours | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

Terrific Home in the Windsong Neighborhood in Loveland!

This super-clean and well-kept home at 4306 Sunridge Dr features an open layout with newer flooring and a super trendy kitchen! Granite counter-tops, convection oven and custom lighting. Finished basement with rec room (pool table included!) and flex space for a possible office or non-conforming fourth bedroom. Brand new exterior paint and a newer roof! Large covered deck overlooks the sprawling fully-fenced back yard with a view of Horseshoe Lake. Call for your private showing at 970-237-2752 for more information or click the link below for more details.

http://holstenrealestate.com/listing/81110799

Posted on July 2, 2018 at 10:44 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Loveland Real Estate, Virtual Tours | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Fantastic Ranch-Style Home in Loveland!

Fantastic 3 bedroom 2 bathroom ranch-style home at 205 W. 50th St in Loveland’s popular Ranch Acres neighborhood. Boasting a large kitchen, separate dining area and spacious living room with a wood-burning fireplace, this home has a great balance of updates and vintage charm. Your new home sets on over a quarter acre lot with a huge yard and large shade trees… not to mention two storage sheds, a sprawling wood deck and fire pit. Oversized two-car attached garage. A great home at a great value! Call for your private showing at 970-237-2752 or click the link below for more details.

http://holstenrealestate.com/listing/77679079

Posted on April 16, 2018 at 2:34 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Loveland Real Estate, Virtual Tours | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,