Rates hit near-historic lows this week and are now at 3.49% for a 30-year mortgage.
There have only been two other times in history when rates have been this low- April 2013 and October 2016.
It’s interesting to see what happened soon after bottoming out these last two times.
In April of 2013 rates hit 3.41%. By August 2013 they had jumped to 4.40%.
Rates bottomed again in October 2016 at 3.42%. Just two months later in December 2016 they were 4.32%.
Each time the increase was nearly 1% within just a few months.
So, if history proves itself as a guide, we can’t expect these rates to last for long.
The United States housing market is experiencing a significant reduction in foreign buyers. Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, cites several factors that could be contributing to this trend and offers his opinions as to what to expect in this recent Market Update.
For home sellers who would like to move to a new home this year, there is a window of time that is closing as we head into the Fall months.
Most people know that the Spring and Summer are the most active months for real estate and that activity trails off into the Fall and Winter.
Here are the specific numbers behind this…
The number of homes sold along the Front Range in November tends to be between 15% and 29% lower than September.
That means the best window of time for current sellers to obtain a contract from a buyer and close by the end of the year will occur over the next 45 days.
For sellers who have homes on the market today, it is time to ensure that:
- The home is priced right versus the competition
- All of the marketing elements are in place
- It is easy for a buyer to make an offer on the home
So how much real estate is sold in Northern Colorado?
As it turns out, a lot!
Last month alone there were 1,099 single family homes that sold in Larimer and Weld Counties
The average price was $429,144 which means the total sales volume for one month was $471,629,129 (almost a half a billion)!
Over the last 12 months, just over $4.5 billion worth of single-family homes have sold.
That’s a lot of real estate!
Here are some observations we have about the market right now:
- Inventory is up, price reductions are up, the length of time to sell a home is up
- Seller concessions are more prevalent
- Sellers are more willing to accept contingent offers (especially in higher price ranges)
- If a home doesn’t sell within a week, it often becomes stigmatized by the market and potential buyers assume there must be something wrong with it
- Homes that likely would have sold within hours a year ago, are now sitting on the market
- Condition is super-important as buyers become even more picky
- Pricing a property correctly on day one is paramount
- Sellers who over-price their property are finding themselves chasing the market
An interesting stat which can give some insight to the national market is the Home-ownership Rate.
It simply looks at the percentage of Americans who own their home instead of rent.
The most recent report from the Census Bureau shows the rate at 64.2%.
Most importantly, this number is showing stability after many years of change.
After many years of hovering around 64%, the Home-ownership Rate started increasing in 1996 and reached as high as 69.5% in 2005.
2008 started several years of declining back to the pre-1996 levels of 64%.
So today it’s back to what seems to be “normal” based the long-term average.
Given how active our market is today and has been over the last few years, many people assume that virtually every home with a “For Sale” sign in the front yard is already under contract.
They are surprised to learn that, in most cases, the “For Sale” sign does indeed represent a home that is actively for sale.
For example, today in Fort Collins there are 655 single-family homes on the market. 290 of these are under contract and will be closing soon. 365 of these are still active. So, 56% of the signs in Fort Collins are in front of homes that are still available.
Here are the specific numbers for each of our Northern Colorado markets:
• Fort Collins = 56%
• Loveland = 57%
• Windsor = 58%
• Greeley = 41%
If you’re short on space but don’t want to move, a home addition is an attractive way to solve your woes and turn your current home into your dream home.
Whether you’re adding a whole new room or a more modest addition, it can turn into a major construction project; with architects and contractors to manage, construction workers traipsing through your home, hammers pounding, and sawdust everywhere. Although new additions can be a great investment, the cost per-square-foot is typically more than building a new home, and much more than buying a larger existing home.
Before you make the leap, consider the following:
Define your needs
To determine if an addition makes sense for your situation, start by defining exactly what it is you want and need. By focusing on core needs, you won’t get carried away with a wish list that can push the project out of reach financially.
If it’s a matter of needing more space, be specific. For example, instead of just jotting down “more kitchen space,” figure out just how much more space is going to make the difference, e.g., “150 square feet of floor space and six additional feet of counter space.”
If the addition will be for aging parents, consult with their doctors or an age-in-place expert to define exactly what they’ll require for living conditions, both now and over the next five to ten years.
Types of Additions
“Bumping out” one or more walls to make a first-floor room slightly larger is something most homeowners think about at one time or another. However, when you consider the work required, and the limited amount of space created, it often ends up to be one of your more expensive approaches.
First Floor Addition
Adding a whole new room (or rooms) to the first floor of your home is one of the most common ways to add space to a home. You can easily create a new family room, apartment or sunroom. But this approach can also take away yard space.
For homes with steep rooflines, adding an upper floor dormer may be all that’s needed to transform an awkward space with limited headroom. The cost is affordable and, when done well, a dormer can also improve the curb-appeal of your house.
For homes without an upper floor, adding a second story can double the size of the house without reducing surrounding yard space. But be cautious not to ruin the value of homes next to you when you do this, the second story might not be worth the drama on your block.
Building above the garage is ideal for a space that requires more privacy, such as a rentable apartment, a teen’s bedroom, guest bedroom, guest quarters, or a family bonus room.
You’ll need a building permit to construct an addition—which will require professional blueprints. Your local building department will not only want to make sure that the addition adheres to the latest building codes, but also ensure it isn’t too tall for the neighborhood or positioned too close to the property line. Some building departments will also want to ask your neighbors for their input before giving you the go-ahead.
Requirements for a legal apartment
While the idea of having a renter that provides an additional stream of revenue may be enticing, the realities of building and renting a legal add-on apartment can be sobering. Among the things you’ll need to consider:
- Special permitting—Some communities don’t like the idea of “mother-in-law” units and therefore have regulations against it, or zone-approval requirements.
- Separate utilities—In many cities, you can’t charge a tenant for heat, electricity, and water unless utilities are separated from the rest of the house (and separately controlled by the tenant).
- ADU Requirements—When building an “accessory dwelling unit” (the formal name for a second dwelling located on a property where a primary residence already exists), building codes often contain special requirements regarding emergency exists, windows, ceiling height, off-street parking spaces, the location of main entrances, the number of bedrooms, and more.
In addition, renters have special rights while landlords have added responsibilities. You’ll need to learn those rights and responsibilities and be prepared to adhere to them. Be sure to talk to your Windermere Real Estate Agent or a local Property Manager about municipal, state, and federal laws.
The cost to construct an addition depends on a wide variety of factors, such as the quality of materials used, the laborers doing the work, the type of addition and its size, the age of your house and its current condition. For ballpark purposes, however, you can figure on spending about $200 per square foot if your home is in a more expensive real estate area, or about $100 per food in a lower-priced market.
You might be wondering how much of that money might the project return if you were to sell the home a couple years later? The answer to that question depends on the above details; but the average “recoup” rate for a family-room addition is typically more than 80 percent.
The Bottom Line
While you should certainly research the existing-home marketplace before hiring an architect to map out the plans, building an addition onto your current home can be a great way to expand your living quarters, customize your home, and remain in the same neighborhood.
The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.
Colorado’s economy continues to grow with the addition of 45,900 new non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, which represents a growth rate of 1.7%. As I have stated in the last two Gardner Reports, we continue to see a modest slowdown in employment gains, but that is to be expected at this stage of the business cycle.
In May, the state unemployment rate was 3.2%, up from 3.1% a year ago. The increase in the rate is essentially due to labor force growth, which rose by over 55,700 people over the past year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rates in all the markets contained in this report were lower than a year ago and are at full employment.
- In the second quarter of 2019, 17,853 homes sold. This is a drop of 1% compared to the second quarter of 2018 but a substantial 59.9% higher than the first quarter of this year. Pending sales — a sign of future closings — rose 5.8%, suggesting that closings in the third quarter are likely to show further improvement.
- Half of the counties contained in this report saw sales growth, while the other half had fewer closings. Sales in the small Clear Creek County fell precipitously. However, it was only a drop of 20 sales.
- The marginal drop in the number of sales compared to a year ago can be attributed to the ongoing increase in listing activity (+34.8%), which continues to give would-be home buyers more choice and less urgency.
- Inventory levels continue to rise, but demand for housing appears to be ongoing. I am not concerned by the marginal year-over-year slowdown and anticipate that sales will rise again in the third quarter.
- Home prices continue to trend higher, but the rate of growth has taken a pause, with the average home price in the region rising by just 2.3% year-over-year to $490,575.
- The drop in interest rates this year has nudged more buyers off the fence and this can allow further price growth as we move through the year.
- Appreciation was again strongest in Park County, where prices rose 6.1%. We also saw strong growth in Weld County, which rose by 6.1%. Home prices dropped in Clear Creek, Boulder, and Gilpin counties, but I do not see this as being indicative of a trend in these markets.
- Affordability continues to be an issue in many Colorado markets and this may act as a modest headwind to ongoing price growth. However, some of the slowing may be offset by very favorable mortgage rates.
DAYS ON MARKET
- The average number of days it took to sell a home in the markets contained in this report rose four days over the second quarter of 2018.
- The amount of time it took to sell a home rose in all counties except Gilpin when compared to the second quarter of 2018.
- It took an average of 29 days to sell a home in the region — a drop of 13 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
- It is likely that the drop in time-on-market was a function of the emerging spring selling season as well as falling mortgage rates.
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
For the second quarter of 2019, I continue the trend I started last summer and have moved the needle a little more in favor of buyers. I continue to closely monitor listing activity to see if we get any major bumps above the traditional increase because that may further slow home price growth. However, the trend for 2019 will continue to be a move toward a more balanced market.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
If you have driven on I-25 lately you may have noticed that the Front Range is a popular place.
The projections show that it will only get more popular in the future.
Today, 4.8 million people live along the Front Range from Fort Collins down to Pueblo.
In 2030, just 11 short years from now, 5.7 million people will live here. Yes, that’s almost 1 million more than today.
This is all according to the Colorado State Demographers Office.
While this seems like a big increase, keep in mind that this assumes that population growth occurs at a fairly modest 1.7% per year.
It seems that our state will continue to grow and there will continue to be a demand for housing.
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