Leading Indicator

We are watching close to see where the real estate market is headed. Anecdotally we can tell you that the vast majority of transactions that are under contract are still closing. We have seen very few transactions cancel because of employment issues or the wild swings of the stock market.

An interesting leading indicator was announced this week that sheds some light as to where the market is headed. Each week the Mortgage Bankers Association releases their index which tracks new mortgage applications.

They track both purchase applications and refinance applications. To no one’s surprise, the index was down this week but not as much as you may have guessed.

New purchase applications were down 11% compared to the same week this last year. Refinance activity fell more sharply, down 34%.

This is a statistic we will watch closely as time goes on.

Continue reading 

Posted on April 6, 2020 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Bubble Burst

Every so often we will hear a concern that another housing bubble is forming.

To help answer that question it’s valuable to look at the reasons that caused the last one.

There were three main drivers of the bubble that burst in 2008:

  1. Easy Credit – loans were very easy to attain
  2. Over-Leverage – people were using their homes at ATM’s
  3. Over-Supply – too many new homes were being built

Now, let’s compare that to today:

  1. Stricter Credit – the average home buyer today has a FICO score of 755
  2. High Equity – collectively, U.S. homeowners have $19 Trillion of equity in their homes and collective mortgage debt has not increased for 13 years
  3. Under-Supply – today we are building only two-thirds of the new homes being built in 2004 yet the population is much higher

Given this healthy information, we don’t see another housing bubble forming today.

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

Posted on March 25, 2020 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Fort Collins Real Estate, Housing Trends, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

A History Lesson

With the stock market on a wild ride and the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1,000 points yesterday, it makes some people wonder if the local real estate market might also crash or at least “correct.”

A little history lesson is in order.

Over the last 40 years, the real estate market along the Front Range has averaged 5.5% appreciation per year.

The highest appreciation in one year was 15.9% in 1994.

The lowest ever was -4.0% in 1982.

The last time Wall Street was in turmoil and the stock market was plummeting was 2008.  This was, for many reasons, the worst economy of our lifetime.

That year real estate along the Front Range dropped 2.2%.

Meanwhile that year the Dow Jones fell 33.8%.

Bottom line, our market has no history of crashing or even experiencing a major correction.

Why is that?

The answer is fundamentals.

Our local economy has inherent fundamentals that insulate it from big downturns.

We have an incredibly diverse economy which is not reliant upon a single industry.  We have all the way from health care, to technology, agriculture, oil and gas, major universities, and financial services (just to name a few).

We are a global destination with a major international airport.

Oh, and the quality of life here isn’t too shabby.

Prices of real estate, just like prices of anything, come down to basic economic principles of supply and demand.

Because of our diverse economy and desirable quality of life, there has been strong, consistent demand for housing along the Front Range.

While there may be little bumps along the way, over the long term our market has proven that it performs.

Posted on March 13, 2020 at 5:56 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Living, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

Rate Forecast

Here is our interest rate Forecast for the next year.

Our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, predicts that rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will stay between 3.8% and 3.9% for 2020.

He doesn’t see rates going above 4.0% until at least the first quarter of 2021.

This is obviously great news for buyers as their payments will stay much lower as compared to having a rate at the long-term average of 7.5%.

If you would like to see the slides from Matthew Gardner’s Forecast presentation, we would be happy to get those in your hands.  Just let us know if we can help!

Posted on February 25, 2020 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Affordability

Housing affordability is a hot topic especially after the strong price appreciation that has occurred in our market over the last 7 years.

Here’s some interesting research on affordability…

Each quarter the National Association of Home Builders measures affordability in hundreds of markets across the Country.

Their method is to count the number of homes in a market that could be purchased with that particular market’s median income.

For example, San Francisco is the least-affordable market where only 8.4% of the homes could be purchased with their median income.

The most-affordable is Monroe, Michigan where 95.3% of the homes could be purchased with their median income.

Guess where all of the 10 least-affordable markets are.  California!

Guess where almost all of the 10 most-affordable markets are.  The rust belt (cities in Michigan, Ohio, upstate New York, etc.)

The U.S. average is 63.6%.

Metro Denver comes in at 55.3% and Northern Colorado at 54.5%.

So, roughly half of the homes in our market could be purchased with our local median income.

Posted on February 21, 2020 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Fort Collins Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Housing Trends, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling, Timnath Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Supply and Demand

Northern Colorado gave us a real-life economics lesson in January 2020.Compared to one year ago…

  • Inventory was down 10% (Supply)
  • Homes under contract went up 31% (Demand)
  • Prices were up 5% (Result)

 

If you would like to see a video recap of our annual Market Forecast you can watch that HERE.

Posted on February 18, 2020 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Millennial Buyers

Millennials often get a bad rap.  One of the myths about Millennials is that they don’t own homes and will be renters forever.

Not true!  Especially on the Front Range of Colorado.

Based on research by our very own Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, Millennials make up a significant percentage of all home buyers in Metro Denver and Colorado.

In Metro Denver, 50% of all buyers last year were in the Millennial demographic.

In Northern Colorado, the number is 41%.

It turns out that Millennials, as they move into their mid to late 30’s, see the value of home ownership and are at the point in their lives where it makes sense to own instead of rent.

Posted on January 17, 2020 at 6:10 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Fort Collins Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Save Your Spot

A quick, simple Fun Fact for you this week…

It’s time to sign up and register for our annual Market Forecast event.

We will be live in Denver on January 15th at the Wellshire Events Center.

And In Fort Collins on January 16th at the Marriott.

Both events start at 5:30.  Choose which location works best for you.

Matthew Garder, our Chief Economist, is the Keynote speaker.

Click the links above to RSVP.

 

It’s time to register for our annual Market Forecast event.  We will be live at 5:30 on January 16th at the Marriott in Fort Collins.  Back by popular demand is our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.  Save your seat HERE.

7037389_1576607038yQiWINRE_Logo_2020Forecast_201912.jpg

Posted on December 27,

 

Posted on December 30, 2019 at 3:51 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Vital Signs

Here are the vital signs for the Northern Colorado market.

First, Larimer County:

  • Average prices are up 2.4%
  • Number of transactions is down 2.5%
  • Inventory is up 11.9%
  • Days on market is up 4.1%

Now, Weld County:

  • Average prices are up 4.3%
  • Number of transactions is up 3.6%
  • Inventory is up 12.9%
  • Days on market is flat (same as last year)

What this means is prices are still going up, just not as fast as they were a couple of years ago.  More inventory is coming on the market which is great news for buyers.

 

Posted on December 27, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Homes for Sale, Housing Trends, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Selling, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

The 12 Facts of Real Estate

  • 1 is the ranking Colorado owns for long-term home price appreciation versus all other states
  • 2.6% unemployment rate in Colorado right now
  • 3.73% mortgage rate for a 30-year mortgage which is about half of the long term average
  • 4.7% apartment vacancy rate in Metro Denver, the lowest since 2015
  • 5.5% is the long-term average for yearly home price appreciation along the Front Range
  • 6,000,000 live in Colorado
  • 7,000 residential properties are for sale in Metro Denver right now and the average for this time of year is 14,700
  • 80,000 is the number of people that is added to our state’s population each year
  • 9 homes are for sale in Larimer and Weld County priced over $2,500,000
  • -10% is the decrease in new home construction in Larimer County compared to last year while Weld County grew by 17%
  • 11 times in the last 40 years home prices have gone up at least 8% along the Front Range
  • $1,202,488 is the average price for a single-family home in the City of Boulder

Posted on December 25, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,