Party Like It’s 2018!

Just a few months ago most people thought mortgage rates were heading to 5% and now they are back to where they were a year ago.

 

You probably saw this week’s news from the Federal Reserve declaring that they would not raise their Federal Funds rate for the rest of 2019

 

(just three months after saying they would raise rates at least twice this year).

 

While this is big news, even bigger news for mortgage rates is that the 10-year Treasury yield just hit its lowest point since January 2018. One thing we’ve learned from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner is that mortgage rates follow the 10-year treasury (not necessarily the Fed Funds rate).

 

Last Spring it looked like mortgage rates had bottomed out and they steadily climbed through the Summer and Fall of 2018. It looked certain that they would hit 5% around January.

 

Instead they started dropping. Now with the 10-year Treasury at a 15-month low, they just dropped a little more and they are back to where they were a year ago.

 

Great news for buyers! Party like it’s 2018!

Posted on April 8, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Housing Trends, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

It’s Tax Time

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of our clients:

  • Don’t agree with the new assessed value
  • Aren’t sure what to do
  • Are confused by the process
  • Want to save money on property taxes

Good news! We have a webinar that will help you. On the webinar we will show you:

  • How to read the information from the County
  • What it means for you
  • How to protest the valuation if you want
  • How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording. In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00. If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of our clients. We hope you can join!

Posted on April 1, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

The Office

As you travel around the Front Range you will notice the following under construction:

 

  • New Homes
  • New Apartments
  • New Medical Facilities

 

However, you will not notice new office buildings under construction.

What gives?  I thought we had a booming economy.  Why no new office buildings?

There are a couple of reasons.  First, construction costs have sky rocketed.  In ten years, construction costs have gone from about $200 per square foot to over $300 per square foot.

Rental rates have not increased at the same pace as construction costs so speculative investors can’t make their numbers work.

It’s too expensive to build compared to the rents that can be charged.

One reason why rental rates haven’t increased at high rate is property taxes.  Property taxes on Class A office buildings have basically doubled in the last 10 years in many cases.

So, until rental rates catch up with construction costs, we won’t see many new office buildings under construction.

Posted on March 21, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Condo Cyclone

 

While the “Bomb Cyclone” closed roads and schools over the last two days, the “Condo Cyclone” is opening new opportunities for first-time buyers.

 

What’s the “Condo Cyclone” you ask. It’s the proliferation of multi-family inventory that has come on the market up and down the Front Range.

Compared to last year, multi-family inventory which includes town-homes and condominiums, has increased…

 

• 79% in Metro Denver
• 34% in Larimer County
• 45% in Weld County

 

This is terrific news for the market overall, as inventory has been unusually low for several months. It’s especially terrific news for first-time buyers who need this type of product as a stepping stone to home ownership.

 

What we notice is a $170,000 to $130,000 difference in average price between a single-family home and a multi-family home in Front Range markets.

 

Specifically, here’s the spread between multi-family and single-family average price:

• $349,801 vs. $512,312 in Metro Denver
• $312,493 vs. $469,294 in Larimer County
• $237,645 vs. $370,027 in Weld County

 

So as we dig out from the “Bomb Cyclone” we can be happy for the “Condo Cyclone” which brings more affordability and opportunity to our markets!

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Just Released (a new resource site just for you…)
• Want to see the latest market trends? 
• Curious to see the process of buying or selling a home? 
• Interested in what it takes to own investment property? 
• Be sure to visit www.ColoradoLivingBlog.com

Posted on March 15, 2019 at 7:23 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Buying, Fort Collins Real Estate, Greeley Real Estate, Homes for Sale, Housing Trends, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Timnath Real Estate, Wellington Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Vegas Baby!

 

The results are in from FHFA.gov’s latest ranking of the top performing markets in the U.S.

Each quarter they track 245 cities across the country and rank their real estate markets by home price appreciation.

 

What’s the highest performing city the the U.S.

Vegas!  Their prices have gone up 17.63% in the last year.

 

How about the worst?

Bloomington, Illinois sits in dead last where prices went down 3.58%

 

Here’s how Colorado cities are ranked:

• #10 Colo. Springs = 11.41%
• #16 Greeley = 10.68%
• #59 Fort Collins = 8.29%
• #64 Denver = 8.15%
• #97 Boulder = 6.85%

Posted on March 11, 2019 at 8:00 am
Jon Holsten | Category: Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Why No Bubble

Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.

It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).

The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.

In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.

 

 

Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.

Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.

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If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to us. We would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on February 1, 2019 at 6:08 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Housing Trends, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

2019 Economic and Housing Forecast

What a year it has been for both the U.S. economy and the national housing market. After several years of above-average economic and home price growth, 2018 marked the start of a slowdown in the residential real estate market. As the year comes to a close, it’s time for me to dust off my crystal ball to see what we can expect in 2019.

The U.S. Economy

Despite the turbulence that the ongoing trade wars with China are causing, I still expect the U.S. economy to have one more year of relatively solid growth before we likely enter a recession in 2020. Yes, it’s the dreaded “R” word, but before you panic, there are some things to bear in mind.

Firstly, any cyclical downturn will not be driven by housing.  Although it is almost impossible to predict exactly what will be the “straw that breaks the camel’s back”, I believe it will likely be caused by one of the following three things: an ongoing trade war, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too quickly, or excessive corporate debt levels. That said, we still have another year of solid growth ahead of us, so I think it’s more important to focus on 2019 for now.

The U.S. Housing Market

Existing Home Sales

This paper is being written well before the year-end numbers come out, but I expect 2018 home sales will be about 3.5% lower than the prior year. Sales started to slow last spring as we breached affordability limits and more homes came on the market.  In 2019, I anticipate that home sales will rebound modestly and rise by 1.9% to a little over 5.4 million units.

Existing Home Prices

We will likely end 2018 with a median home price of about $260,000 – up 5.4% from 2017.  In 2019 I expect prices to continue rising, but at a slower rate as we move toward a more balanced housing market. I’m forecasting the median home price to increase by 4.4% as rising mortgage rates continue to act as a headwind to home price growth.

New Home Sales

In a somewhat similar manner to existing home sales, new home sales started to slow in the spring of 2018, but the overall trend has been positive since 2011. I expect that to continue in 2019 with sales increasing by 6.9% to 695,000 units – the highest level seen since 2007.

That being said, the level of new construction remains well below the long-term average. Builders continue to struggle with land, labor, and material costs, and this is an issue that is not likely to be solved in 2019. Furthermore, these constraints are forcing developers to primarily build higher-priced homes, which does little to meet the substantial demand by first-time buyers.

Mortgage Rates

In last year’s forecast, I suggested that 5% interest rates would be a 2019 story, not a 2018 story. This prediction has proven accurate with the average 30-year conforming rates measured at 4.87% in November, and highly unlikely to breach the 5% barrier before the end of the year.

In 2019, I expect interest rates to continue trending higher, but we may see periods of modest contraction or levelling.  We will likely end the year with the 30-year fixed rate at around 5.7%, which means that 6% interest rates are more apt to be a 2020 story.

I also believe that non-conforming (or jumbo) rates will remain remarkably competitive. Banks appear to be comfortable with the risk and ultimately, the return, that this product offers, so expect jumbo loan yields to track conforming loans quite closely.

Conclusions

There are still voices out there that seem to suggest the housing market is headed for calamity and that another housing bubble is forming, or in some cases, is already deflating.  In all the data that I review, I just don’t see this happening. Credit quality for new mortgage holders remains very high and the median down payment (as a percentage of home price) is at its highest level since 2004.

That is not to say that there aren’t several markets around the country that are overpriced, but just because a market is overvalued, does not mean that a bubble is in place. It simply means that forward price growth in these markets will be lower to allow income levels to rise sufficiently.

Finally, if there is a big story for 2019, I believe it will be the ongoing resurgence of first-time buyers. While these buyers face challenges regarding student debt and the ability to save for a down payment, they are definitely on the comeback and likely to purchase more homes next year than any other buyer demographic.

Originally published on Inman News.

 

What Our Expert Thinks

Here’s what our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, thinks about the 2019 U.S. Housing Market. He is regarded as one of the Country’s experts on real estate and is frequently quoted by leading industry publications.

 

• Existing Home Sales up 1.9% to 5.4 million units
• Home Prices up 4.4%
• New Home Sales up 6.9% to 695,000 (the highest since 2007)

 

If you want to see all of Matthew’s predictions including where interest rates are headed, get signed up for our annual Forecast. Click the link below!

Posted on January 31, 2019 at 7:59 pm
Jon Holsten | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Housing Trends, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , ,